2 months ago
“When you as the LLM industry want to prove your worth, you can't just be like, just use the product. When the first iPhone came out, I got Penn State at the time. Oh, I felt like the Apes at the beginning of 2001. It was like fucking official voicemail. It was immediate. And I showed it to tech friends.”
“iPhone and he bursts out laughing. $500 fully subsidized with a plan? I said, that is the most expensive phone in the world.”
“too much spend for not enough return. Paraphrasing there. And he made the point that in the run-up to the iPhone, there was thousands of presentations that when GSM radios get smaller, when Bluetooth radios get smaller, when Wi-Fi radios get smaller, it is inevitable that we will get something like this.”
“Tell me how buggy it is. Tell me how many problems. Even with my iPhone, the supposed best UX in town. Even the iPhone is a flipping mess these days. Okay, so the research says the short answer is yes.”
“the cost part, but you could just be like, look how good this is. And then once the app was the iPhone 3G with the App Store, people are like, oh shit, this could actually change things. Mobile web, even though it was a monstrosity, it was so bad at first. Even then, you could get your emails and you could just look at them.”
“didn't have a GPU? So Matic. Matic is this cleaning robot, for example. That thing has not got a little GPU in it. What it has, and may indeed have used some GPUs, but no year as many as they need for generative AI to run the data, feed training data into it so it's able to clean a house.”
“It was immediate. And I showed it to tech friends. I showed it to the most normal people in the world. And everyone was like, holy shit, this is, they were on Razors. They were on Nokia 3210s. It was obvious the value. Amazon Web Services, same deal. It wasn't obvious, though. Yes, it was. I mean, I bought it. To you, it was.”
“Within that, with each one of the eight buildings, there'll be 50,000 NVIDIA GB200 GPUs. So the city of Bristol takes about 780,800 megawatts of power a year, right?”
“I remember growing up with dial-up modems and I couldn't go on the phone at the same time as going on the internet. I'd have to stop RuneScape upstairs to go on the phone. And you thought, this is crap. This is technology crap. I don't know, mate. I loved it. Yeah, I know. It felt like magic. And then in hindsight, you go, wow, I now have Starlink and 5G internet from my phone.”
“And that's what I... This is for my Mythbusters piece. That was definitely about generative AI. Okay, but what about robotics? The thing is... The Optimus robot that Elon's working on at Tesla. The one where even in the demo of the hand, they had to have a guy controlling it. It wasn't doing it autonomously. Here's the thing.”
“So, you know, I think back through the history of technological breakthroughs and I think about, I mean, you can look at different industries. And one of my favorite books on this subject is The Innovator's Dilemma. I've read it. And one of the things it talks about is how the innovation that ends up taking out or transforming an industry often starts worse, doesn't make economic sense.”
As referenced on air, with the quote and the moment. Reported, not evaluated.
“the four-year trend, according to historical data from the Victaria hallucination leaderboard, shows that hallucination rates on simple summarization tasks have plummeted from around 21%, 21.8% four years ago, down to 0.7% roughly on today's top frontier models like Gemini and ChatGPT.”
“Jim Covello from Goldman Sachs in a report he did in 2024 that was Gen AI, too much spend for not enough return.”
“by 2005 or so, it will become clear that the internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine.”
“Clifford Stohl, famously, I wrote about this in my book, wrote famously in Newsweek, do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth is, no online database will replace your daily newspaper.”
“Siteline Climate said in February there's 190 gigawatts of data centers under in planning”
“OpenAI had a study that came out, I think, like a week ago, that said there was no connection between spending on AI tokens and revenue per employee.”
“There was an Oxford Economics study last year where it's like, oh, young people are finding less jobs because of AI.”
“Jeffrey Hinton, as well, talk in his book, still got his Google stock, I think.”
“If that changes, to quote Ed Elson from Prof G Markets again, it's this, they're all doing Botox right now.”